A Trump Win is Unlikely, but not Impossible

With six days left until the Presidential election, both sides have officially entered the absolute last stretch of the campaign. Ad spending is ramping up by the millions of dollars in states like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona. Right now, things look pretty grim for the Trump campaign. The debates failed to move the polls at all, with a change on average of a minimal 0.1 points (a result that can easily be attributed to polling error). A last-ditch effort by the President to make states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin within striking distance is quickly becoming more and more unlikely. So with that being said, let’s go through how the Trump campaign can turn this around and win the election.

Path One: Trump wins the Southwest, and pulls Pennsylvania

In this map, Trump pulls a narrow victory in Arizona, Georgia, and Florida and holding strong in Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina. But even those states don’t put Trump over 270, he needs Pennsylvania to win. Out of the midwestern states that Trump won in 2016, Pennsylvania is the closest of them all in 2020. Trump has roughly a thirteen percent chance of winning the state according to Nate Silver’s 538. Is that an impossible reach to assume that Pennsylvania would fall to President Trump? No, but it’s unlikely.